Debate Fallout Recap
The biggest event of this past week was the first of two planned presidential debates between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Due to the fallout from that debate, the weekly recap will be a debate recap.
Biden had a bad night. Trump had a bad night. The moderators had a bad night. Only approximately 50 million viewers tuned in to watch the debate, a significant drop from the over 70 million who tuned in to the first debate in the 2020 election and far below the 155 million people who voted in the 2020 presidential election.
So why is such a mediocre debate creating such intense discussion? The continual concern around protecting our democracy from another Trump presidency combined with the lack of enthusiasm among voters for this 2020 rematch.
While Trump was his usual self, avoiding answering any of the actual questions while lying with every answer he gave, Biden was off his game. His voice was hoarse from a cold, his energy was low, and he stumbled through some of the answers, particularly early in the night.
In some Democratic circles, the debate caused panic, which led to days of pundits and political insiders saying that Biden should be replaced by a younger candidate.
Many candidates, including Obama and Bill Clinton, have had bad debates. What is different this year is the simmering dissatisfaction with the 2024 election. We are facing a rematch when America wishes we were moving on to something new.
Progressives want a more progressive President even though Biden has been the most progressive leader in modern times with major advances in green energy, student debt forgiveness, gun reform, unions, infrastructure, and more.
Republican Never Trumpers/Never Again Trumpers are focused purely on having someone defeat Trump. Despite Biden having been the only candidate ever to beat Trump, they have been yearning for a younger, dynamic, charismatic maverick who could inspire the whole country. A candidate that, by all accounts, doesn’t appear to exist anywhere in US politics at the moment.
And then there are the Democrats and Centrists who want politics exciting. They want someone who will be in front of the cameras giving rousing speeches, pushing for reform and progress, and drawing the huge crowds and rallies that Obama did. To them, Biden is boring. He isn’t about the circus. Biden prefers to work behind the scenes and deliver results, which he has done in spades during his Presidency.
Despite his presidential successes, Biden has one characteristic that has bothered all these groups. He’s old. So is Trump, but none of these people want Trump in office anyway, so the focus ends up being purely on Biden’s age.
Because of this, there have been grumblings against Biden running again for years. Since the nomination was clinched, there have been occasional mentions of “Wouldn’t it be great to have a more exciting candidate step in?”. So hysteria ensued when a bad debate night confirmed to these various groups that Biden was old and had lost a step.
The calls for Biden to be replaced reached a crescendo from those who had been critical of Biden all along. This included major Democratic podcasters, social media influencers, pundits, and political insiders.
Replacing Biden isn’t the right move, and it is extremely complicated. Primaries have already been held, voters already voted for Biden, and delegates have been assigned. No one has the authority to dismiss those results meaning that the only way to change the nominee is for Biden to decide to step down, which his campaign has said he has no plans to do.
If Biden were to step down, there would not be a clear path for a replacement. Prior to the convention, a format would need to be established for deciding how to assign delegates to other candidates. Such discussion, preparation, debates, and voting can only move so quickly.
Who would be the replacement candidate? Several prominent Democrats would be jockeying behind the scenes to be the new presidential nominee. Divisions could form, messes could be created, and it would be an unwelcome distraction during an important election.
If Biden stepped down after the convention, the situation would be different. The DNC would choose the replacement after conferring with Democratic governors and congressional leaders.
Finding a nominee is only part of the problem. The fundraising Biden has accumulated can’t simply be transferred to another candidate, and the political operations set up in the states wouldn’t just swap over either. The new candidate would need to make sure to get on every state ballot, and there would be a plethora of complex logistics to work out in only four months until the election.
Fortunately, none of this is necessary. While the debate concerned political insiders, it seemingly wasn’t to the general public. Post-debate polls so far show no change in support for the candidates. Campaign donations have poured in for Biden, breaking his campaign record for grassroots donations in the hour after the debate ended. Over $27 million was raised on the day of the debate through the following evening.
Biden also reassured many Democrats the next day at a campaign rally in North Carolina, where he made a rousing speech and said:
“I know I’m not a young man. I don't walk as easy as I used to. I don't speak as smoothly as I used to. I don't debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth.
When you get knocked down, you get back up. Folks, I give you my word as a Biden: I would not be running again if I didn't believe, with all my heart and soul, I could do this job — because, quite frankly, the stakes are too high."
While declaring that Biden should step down a few months before the election was an extreme reaction, having criticisms or doubts about a political candidate, including within your party, is normal and healthy. No one is meant to believe that everything their candidate does is correct. That is why MAGA is often accused of being cult-like because criticism of Donald Trump isn’t allowed or accepted within the GOP.
Criticism among potential Biden voters is even less surprising because the Democratic party is a wide coalition, not a unified group. Some are focused on reproductive rights, others on climate change, voting rights, inequality, and poverty, and there are Republicans who are allied with Democrats purely because they see Trump as the biggest threat to our nation and will do what it takes to keep him out of the White House.
When you have Moderates, Progressives, Democratic Socialists, Republicans, and Independents all behind a single candidate, there will be plenty of disagreements.
But what everyone should remember is that having a unified front heading into an election is how you help a candidate win. And having President Biden reelected is better for everyone in the Democratic coalition than having Trump return to power. Publicly saying that Biden should step out of the way does nothing to build confidence in voting for him come November.
Fortunately, most of those who declared the loudest that Biden should be replaced have now settled back into supporting Biden over the last two days, which means everything about this debate could easily be forgotten as soon as a week from now.
I will leave you with the statement made by former President Barack Obama in response to the post-debate uproar:
“Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.”