Support Ukraine

It may feel like the war in Ukraine will never end, but it is important both to defend freedom and Democracy, as well as to improve US standing and NATO capabilities.

A looming government shutdown became a perfect setting for far right Republicans to once again move to block aid to Ukraine.

The majority of Americans still support sending aid to Ukraine, but the support level has been decreasing, mainly due to Republicans voters turning against the idea.

This change in sentiment is because of the far right politicians who have not only been against helping Ukraine, but at times have been parroting Russian propaganda talking points.

America should continue to support Ukraine and here is why:

Ukraine Didn’t Cause This War

Ukraine did nothing to cause this war, nor did they do anything to cause the previous invasion of Crimea. Russia invaded both times in an effort to gain land back as Putin’s goal is to rebuild the USSR.

Not only did Putin invade unprovoked. He also:

• used cluster munitions from day one

• has reportedly used chemical weapons

• blew up a dam causing civilian casualties and ecological devastation

• threatened to blow up a nuclear power plant

• used mercenary forces which is against international law

• has filled large swaths of land in Ukraine with mines that will cause civilian deaths for decades to come

• has committed human atrocities against civilians including murder, rape and abduction

• these crimes are so severe that the International Criminal Court put out an arrest warrant against Putin for Crimes Against Humanity

During this time Ukraine simply defended itself and its own territory. Until very recently, Ukraine didn’t even attempt any attacks into Russia’s territory due to not wanting to strain the international support they had been receiving.

Russia Is Severely Weakened

For less than 1/10th of one year of the US military budget, and not a single US casualty, Russia has been severely weakened.

• Russia has lost 2/3rds of its tank forces. So great are the losses that they have been forced to pull old obsolete tanks out of storage in an effort to keep their war effort going. These totals are only based on independent confirmation of visual losses which means the actual losses are even higher.

• A pride of Russia was their artillery capability. In fact Russia had initially planned that the invasion would be a three day war, in large part due to the immense amount of artillery that would be used in support of their attack. Now over a year and half later, Russia has lost thousands of pieces of artillery equipment and is running low on ammunition. There are reports of artillery shells without explosives in them being sent to the Russian forces as they desperately try to keep the supply lines flowing, and overall artillery strikes from Russia have decreased dramatically.

• Russian aircraft have fared better than their ground forces but have still suffered significant losses, at least 10%, and that was before the US gave the OK for NATO allies to give F-16s to Ukraine to help them battle for air superiority. 

• Soldiers are Russia’s biggest loss with an estimated ~250,000 casualties so far in this war. In response to these severe losses, Russia has called up over 300,000 reserve troops and increased their military draft. It is estimated that 97% of Russia’s army is deployed inside Ukraine already.

• Russia’s long range missile supply has been reduced to below 20%. These missiles rely on foreign electronics as Russia doesn’t produce advanced enough chips to power them. Due to sanctions, Russia shouldn’t be able to get more of these chips but has found a workaround by getting friendly nations to import non-military electronics which Russia then pulls the needed parts out of. Ukraine has reported finding more Chinese parts in Russian missiles as the war has dragged on.

And that brings us to the next point:

Other US Adversaries Are Weakened

The US has four main adversaries on the world stage: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. While these nations don’t have a defined military alliance, they do help each other. By trying to prop up Russia, these nations are weakening themselves and their own military stockpiles.

Iran has been providing drones for Russia which have been getting shot down by the thousands. North Korea hosted Russian military officials and showed off North Korean military technology that Russia may end up buying. And as we just discussed, China is aiding Russia in non-direct military ways as they want Russia to succeed against the West but don’t want to risk being dragged into the war.

Despite all of these nations propping up Russia, Russia continues to lose the war. Russia was stalled in their invasion relatively quickly. They have since lost 50% of the territory they had claimed and are now also suffering periodic drone attacks against targets on Russian soil. As Ukraine continues to gain ground and gain better technology from the West, this situation will only get worse for Russia.

NATO has shown its superiority and Ukraine has shown its grit and determination. All of which shows Russia’s weakness.

NATO Expansion

Ukraine had already been interested in joining NATO due to Russia aggression and the previous annexation of the Crimea region. The fear of NATO is one of the reasons Russia claims to have launched their invasion. However, Russia invading a neighboring country has directly strengthened NATO.

• Finland has joined NATO.

• Sweden has been approved to join.

• Ukraine has mostly been approved but needs to wait for the war with Russia to end to become a member.

• Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with Georgia have also requested to join.

Russia’s own aggression has spurred more nations to join an alliance with the US, strengthening our influence around the world.

Lessons Learned

No nation has fought a drawn out modern armor and technology ground war, until now.

Strategies from major wars in the past are showing they don’t hold up to modern times and the US strategies from recent lopsided wars that utilized shock and awe to move quickly with our technology superiority can’t be used in this situation.

While the US and NATO allies have trained Ukrainian forces, those forces have had to make adaptations on the battlefield, as has Russia. Forward communication posts proved extremely vulnerable to drone attacks, resulting in a pivot which created a new level of misdirection and quick construction of outposts that allow forces to change locations easily while maintaining communication. Weapons and attacks are now routinely wasted on dummy targets.

Long range missiles have had their vulnerabilities to electronic jamming exposed and the US is already improving designs on our next generation missiles which are now in production. The fact that these new missiles will be joining America’s arsenal soon is part of why the US finally agreed to give Ukraine ATACMS missiles which have a much longer range than anything Ukraine had been using.

This war also helped expose ammunition production issues for the US and its allies. Ukraine and Russia have both been going through ammunition at faster rates than they and their allies can produce replacements. As it turns out, no nation on Earth was truly ready for this type of conflict.

The US and NATO are already taking steps to improve ammunition production and NATO nations are increasing their defense spending now that they see the cost of future wars. We are now better prepared for modern conflicts.

Conclusion

For less than 1/10th of one year of our military budget, or for ~1.5% of one year of the US federal budget, one of our greatest adversaries has not only been stopped in their tracks during an invasion, but they have lost 50% of the ground they had taken and have lost 50% of their military forces.

NATO has grown stronger both through more nations joining and through increased spending and knowledge.

US influence has grown on the world stage. 

Our other adversaries have been weakened and have seen how easily they can be stopped by NATO, even indirectly.

The US learned vulnerabilities in our military strategies, infrastructure, and technology all without a single US casualty.

Even if you don’t want to support Ukraine on the basis of protecting their Democracy and freedom from an invading tyrannical leader determined to rebuild the former greatness of the USSR, then at least see the practicality in supporting their defense for the advantages it provides the US and the West in positioning against the bad actors looking to cause unrest on the world stage.

Stand with Ukraine.