The Election Shouldn't Be Close. But It Is.
The US economy is firing on all cylinders. Inflation was at 0% for May and -0.1% for June. Wages have been outpacing inflation for over a year. Job growth continues to be high, unemployment is low, and prices have been dropping for months.
Both manufacturing and construction are booming. America isn’t directly involved in any wars. NATO is the strongest it has ever been. US energy production is greater than any nation in history, while equally historic investments have been made in green energy, replacing coal and reducing emissions.
Crime is plummeting, gun violence is dropping, and violent crime is at a 50-year low. More Americans have healthcare than ever before. A record number of small businesses have been created at the same time as stock markets are hitting new record highs. And only 13% of Americans earn below $15 an hour.
By all accounts, the conditions are perfect for an incumbent President to skate through to an easy reelection against even a tough opponent with a strong record and a popular platform.
This incumbent is facing a former President who lost reelection, mismanaged a pandemic, caused an insurrection, stole national security secrets, interfered with an election, is a convicted felon who has also been found liable for rape, fraud, and defamation, who has said definitively that he wants to be a dictator that will round up people to put them in camps, seek retribution on his enemies, use the military on civilians, and terminate the Constitution.
The polls show the contest to be a toss-up, with only 116 days until the election.
Why?
There are some Democrats, pundits, podcasters, and actors who feel the reason is that President Biden is too old, and people are worried about his fitness to serve another four years. The problem with that assessment is that the same polls which show the race is neck and neck also show that the situation is roughly the same or worse for any other Democratic candidate. So while there are concerns by some about Biden, it isn’t why the polling is so close.
Are the polls inaccurate? Many people say so, and some recent primary races have shown major inaccuracies in polls, such as the Democratic primaries in Maryland, where Angela Alsobrook was shown to be trailing David Trone by as much as 10 points, only to turn around and win by over 10 points.
Polling organizations have admitted that it is easier to get conservatives to respond to polls than liberals, particularly in the wake of Trump being convicted of 34 felonies, as Republicans want to make their continued support for Trump known.
There is undoubtedly some inaccuracy to polling, particularly this far from election day. Still, given how well the country is doing and the horrible things Trump has said and done, even inaccurate polls should still show at least a moderate advantage for Biden if the election were going to be a blowout for Democrats.
The simpler explanation is that this is the current state of a highly partisan America where one side of the aisle is frustrated that America is becoming less white, less Christian, and the “traditional American family” looks different than it did decades ago. These voters feel the government has ignored rural America, trade workers, and those without a college degree. That feeling is what gave rise to Trump, who focused on speaking directly to them while attacking the “deep state” and the media.
The other side of the aisle, and many centrists, have one main agenda: keeping Trump out of the White House.
Combine this division with the fact that at least one-third of Americans are absent from politics. They don’t show up to vote. This is why presidential elections have been so close, even as the right choice seems overwhelmingly obvious to so many.
Hillary Clinton was an accomplished politician who was practical with her policies. She warned that a Trump presidency would risk reproductive rights and the Supreme Court, both of which turned out to be fully accurate. Despite this, she lost the election to a lifelong conman who had declared bankruptcy multiple times, lied every time he spoke, and had no experience in government at all.
In 2020 after having the worst presidency in US history as determined by presidential historians and scholars, and after botching a pandemic response as badly as is humanly possible, Trump barely lost his reelection bid by extremely close margins in a few key states.
Now, after causing an insurrection, stealing national security secrets, becoming a felon, saying he wants to be a dictator, wanting to abandon NATO, causing the loss of reproductive rights, and having members of his future administration drafting an authoritarian manifesto called Project 2025, Trump’s election chances are as close as ever.
That’s not how it is supposed to work in the world’s greatest and most powerful democracy. Yet here we are.
Critics can blame President Biden, but this isn’t on him. His presidency has been one of the best, if not the most successful, in modern times. His policies have directly benefited and improved the lives of those who feel most disenfranchised by the government. He pulled the nation through the pandemic recovery better than every other leader in the world.
This is the new America. Half of the country has chosen sides, and they’re going to vote for their side no matter if their candidates are convicted of felonies or if they tried to overthrow the government.
Another third thinks there is no point in voting. The remaining 20% feel disappointed by both major parties and by both candidates, and they are the ones who will determine the next President of the United States and, therefore, the future of our nation.
This is what makes some Democrats want to make a last-minute effort to swap out President Biden for a new, younger, hopefully more exciting candidate to energize the undecided independents. However, as mentioned at the start, there is no evidence that any such candidate exists because all politicians disillusion these voters.
Changing candidates this close to an election is a major risk, given that serious complications could arise from launching an entire new candidacy on all 50 ballots with a fully staffed and funded ground team in every battleground state.
There is no miracle fix for our current situation, and there is no magical way to energize the voters who are exhausted by endless attacks on our rights, a pandemic, inflation, and world conflicts.
This election is going to be a grind. In the end, the party that sticks with it day in and day out and has its whole party pulling in the same direction will be victorious.