The Politics of Bidenomics

A strategic message today for an important election tomorrow.

How is the economy doing? The answer depends on who you ask. 

Biden and the Democrats have begun a cross country tour to tout the administration's accomplishments, the improving economic metrics, and the amazing job market.

Republicans are doing everything they can to downplay America’s economy and imprint an image of an administration that is out of touch with Americans’ struggles.

Both situations can’t simultaneously be true which highlights the ever growing political polarization and the mindset of party over country.

It is undeniable that America went through a period of high inflation, as did the entire world. The Covid pandemic had a negative impact on industry and supply lines. Combine that disruption with the financial stimulus policies from governments trying to keep their citizens afloat during the turmoil, and high inflation was inevitable.

We can also see that inflation in the US spiked up faster than the other G7 nations, nations with advanced economies similar to our own. However, the US spike was lower than many nations and the US has recovered much faster. Inflation has dropped to 4% and is expected to be around 3.6% by the end of the quarter, which is right in line with the average inflation rate of the US over numerous decades.

From the beginning, Republicans have wanted to blame inflation on Biden. Despite the worldwide rising inflation following the worldwide pandemic, many Americans bought into this thinking.

In the age of streaming, same day delivery, and instant access to endless information, it is easy to forget that economic policy changes on a national level don’t begin to show their effects for one to two years. Inflation began rising one month into Biden’s term. No policy or legislative action taken could have caused that or prevented it.

What Biden did do was focus on policies to control inflation and build the economy. Then, in July of 2022, inflation began to fall, rapidly. Now it is back to normal rates faster than other comparable nations and at a time that the US economy is remarkably strong.

The issue for Republicans is that since they spent all of their time saying inflation was the fault of Joe Biden, simply because he was President when it happened, then they can’t admit that the economy is now strong because the credit would also have to go to Biden.

So instead, they’re trying to counter Biden’s cross country Bidenomics campaign by pretending the economy is still in a bad place. A tactic that both isn’t working and is playing directly into Biden’s hand. But before we discuss that, how is the US economy actually doing?

• Unemployment has remained under 4% for 16 months straight. A remarkable feat that hasn’t happened since the 1960s, which happens to be the last time the middle class was doing well in America. Unemployment also hit a low of 3.4%, a value not seen in over 50 years.

• The job market is very tight, a term that simply means there are more open jobs than there are workers. At the start of 2023 there were 2 job openings for every unemployed American, a first in recorded history for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

• This is because the US has added over 13 million new jobs during Biden’s time in office, higher than any President in history and a stark contrast to the 2.9 million jobs lost during Trump’s presidency.

• A portion of these jobs can be credited to the US manufacturing boom, part of which can be attributed to the CHIPS and Science Act which is intended to bring more microchip and technology manufacturing back to the United States. This plan is creating jobs, factories, and protecting our microchip technology lead over China. Since the start of 2022, investment in factory building has doubled.

• The final point to discuss is wages. With inflation as high as it was in 2022, wages weren’t growing as fast as inflation. This was the pain many Americans were facing making ends meet. Now, inflation has cooled significantly and wages are rising fast. May showed over a 5% increase in wage growth over the previous year and more wage growth is expected through the remainder of 2023.

All of this is good news. But there is no major election for 16 months. Why is Biden out on the road touting these accomplishments now?

Part of it is fundraising. Election season is already underway, especially for Presidential and Senate candidates. Biden is visiting many districts, including Republican majority districts, to show how his administration is helping Americans. His hope is to increase donations to Democrats and slow them for Republicans.

But there is another reason, a long term strategic move which has proven to be Biden’s strong suit in political gamesmanship. By discussing the economy now, Republicans also have to discuss it now.

They’re more than happy to use outdated data to suggest that Bidenomics is a failure. And they’re specifically using the term Bidenomics every time they discuss the topic in an attempt to counter Biden’s narrative.

That is the move. That is Biden’s plan. 

For all of their talk about Biden being too old, clueless, or senile, he continues to run circles around the dysfunctional Republican party. The debt ceiling was an embarrassment for Kevin McCarthy and the Freedom Caucus. Bidenomics will be the sequel.

When people vote in 2024, they won’t be factoring in what the economy was 4 years ago, or even 1 year ago. They’ll be factoring in how they feel that day and how they felt over the past couple of months. With the current trajectory, the economy will be robust, wages will be up, and costs of goods will be normal once again.

When people go to cast their ballots in 2024, the economy will be strong and they’ll be thinking about how Bidenomics got it there, all thanks to Republicans saying Bidenomics over and over again.

The GOP is playing Tic-Tac-Toe while Biden is playing chess with an eye on setting up a favorable endgame.