Four Main Republican Lies
Republicans have been relying on four main lies this election cycle. They are claiming that:
Crime is up
Inflation is high
Biden is waging a war on US energy
Biden is refusing to address the border
Let’s disprove these lies one by one:
Crime
Crime remained relatively level with a slight uptick in 2021, but then it dropped in 2022, and in 2023, it dropped by an even larger amount. So far, in 2024, crime has fallen even faster.
Donald Trump oversaw gun deaths (excluding suicides), increasing from 15,000 in 2016 to 19,600 in 2020. 2020 was also the largest increase in homicides in US history. In stark contrast, 2024 so far has seen a 26% decrease in homicides, and if it stays on this track, it will be the largest decrease in homicides in US history.
Gun deaths, which were down to 18,800 in 2023, have so far dropped another 13% in 2024, and mass shootings are down almost 30% this year. Violent Crime overall is at a 50-year low.
If this all seems clear-cut, it is. But Republicans have been using another lie when the data is presented: They claim it isn’t accurate.
Their theory is that since reporting crime data to the FBI database is voluntary, there was a nefarious scheme from Democrats to stop reporting data. Not surprisingly, this isn’t true.
It has always been voluntary to report data to the FBI, and there has always been a high rate of information reported. In 2020, 85% of precincts across the country reported their data which covered 95% of the population. In 2022, over 83% of precincts reported, which covered 93.5% of the population. While there is a slight difference in the amount reported, it is nowhere near enough to account for the large reductions in crime rates.
2021 was a special year for FBI data because the bureau has a new reporting system that allows more crimes to be reported and more details about the crimes. In 2020, the FBI permitted reports on the old and new systems. In 2021 the FBI only allowed reports on the new system, but some areas weren’t ready for the changeover, so crime reporting was lower. In response, in 2022, the FBI went back to allowing data to be reported on both systems, and the data returned to normal levels.
Another tactic that Republicans use is to claim that liberal district attorneys stopped prosecuting crimes or changed the prosecution policies on certain crimes, which caused those rates to go down. While this is a distortion of reality, laws change yearly, and some crimes are less likely to be reported by victims. This is why homicides are the key crime trend that is looked at. Homicide is illegal everywhere, and everyone reports it when it happens. Homicide rates have been plummeting.
Biden also increased federal funds for local police departments, and police funding has increased nationwide.
Inflation
There is no denying that a short time into Biden’s presidency, there was high inflation, which lasted for about a year. This resulted from the actions taken during the Covid pandemic, and high inflation affected the entire world.
There is also no denying that the US has had the best pandemic recovery and economy in the world. Even the World Bank said its expectations for the next two years had improved specifically because of the strength of the US economy.
A strong economy doesn’t specifically mean low inflation, so where are we?
May had 0% inflation. The 12 months up through May had 3.3% inflation and wage growth of 4.1%. While the US has come to look for inflation under 2%, 3.3% is exactly in line with the historical average for the US. It is not, by any measure, high inflation.
The fact that 12-month inflation was 3.3% tells us that inflation has not been high for at least a year. By May of 2023, 12-month inflation was down to 4% and continuing to decrease, which shows that the high monthly inflation had already subsided. High monthly inflation hasn’t been an issue for over 16 months.
US Energy
America continues to produce more oil, natural gas, and propane than ever and more than any other nation. We are also the world’s leading exporter of all three. So why are energy and gas prices still higher?
OPEC+ cut oil output for a long time to push prices higher. US record oil production helped keep prices lower globally in the face of OPEC+’s price manipulation.
Then there is corporate greed. Oil companies have made record-setting profits with their higher prices, and there was even attempted collusion between a US company and OPEC to drive prices higher. When Democrats in Congress proposed a bill to stop oil companies from price gouging, all Republicans voted against it.
Gas prices tend to rise ahead of the summer as refineries perform planned maintenance to prepare for the increased demand during the summer months.
Biden previously released millions of barrels of oil from the US oil reserves to ease prices and then repurchased at a lower cost for a $66 million win.
US gas prices have dropped for the last two months and are at a 3-year low.
The Biden administration had also paused new natural gas exports to non-free trade agreement nations to study the impact those exporters would have, including how it would impact US energy costs since 30% of all energy in the US is from natural gas. Republicans brought the pause to court, which recently overruled and ended the measure.
It isn’t just fossil fuels that Biden is leading on. He has made the nation’s largest investment in green energy, which has brought the US to 40% emissions-free power generation and has us on track for 80% by 2030. CO2 emissions have been dropping throughout his presidency as well.
Southern Border
Contrary to Republican talking points, Biden did not undo all of Trump’s border measures to create a flood of migrants.
Border crossings have been increasing during Trump’s presidency. When the COVID pandemic hit, fewer migrants made the journey, and the emergency allowed temporary measures to be enacted to rapidly deport migrants and block asylum requests.
Once the COVID emergency ended, those temporary border measures ended as well at a time when migrants began making the trip once again. Biden deported a higher percentage of migrants and utilized Title 42 more than Trump did.
While Biden did end Remain in Mexico, it was because it wasn’t working. One-third of migrants simply recrossed the border, and many of those who remained in Mexico faced assaults, abductions, and extortions. It was a humanitarian nightmare. Biden also sought to replace that measure with the Circumvention of Lawful Pathways rule, which would have stopped most asylum requests between ports of entry but was taken to court and blocked.
Biden took over 100 other measures to try to fix the border, all while Republicans in Congress obstructed the bipartisan border bill, which would have made a significant difference.
Biden encouraged Mexico to better enforce the immigration rules on its side of the border, which caused a significant decrease in border encounters. That was followed by an executive order allowing the shutdown of asylum requests between ports of entry when the average number of border encounters exceeded 2,500 per day.
All this work has caused border crossings to plummet over the last four months. In June, 84,000 encounters occurred between ports of entry along the southern border. This is below the numbers Trump saw in 2019 for March, April, May, and June.
Every one of these issues is actually a success story for Biden and Democrats, which is why Republicans are working so hard to spin these positives into negatives through bald-faced lies.
That is exactly what happens when a political party has no successes of its own and, therefore, no achievements to campaign on. Its only strategy is to try to undermine the accomplishments of the other party.
Don’t fall for it.